Bill's Own Y2K page

In this page, I'll try to briefly outline my take on the Y2K problem, and the steps that I think that you should take to protect yourself.

The Y2k Problem

As you may know, I have been in the computer field for most of these last 32 years. I have been tracking the reaction to the Y2K problem of computer professionals...especially the senior ones. Several things seem obvious:

  1. The Y2K problem will not be solved on time. Almost no major computer project that I've ever seen has come in on time. And I've seen a LOT of major computer projects. There is no chance that all of the Y2K projects will be complete. (Barring, of course, Divine intervention...)

  2. The Y2K problem is bigger than most people realize. The number of embedded chips (alone) that could cause problems is in the neighborhood of 70 billion. Even a small percentage of failures yields a large number of problems. Many of these are in process control systems, such as oil refineries and water treatment plants. Others may be in your VCR, microwave, automobile, camcorder, or other household appliance. While a VCR failure may mean only that you can't tape "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" while you are at work, a failure of an embedded chip in a cooling pump in a nuclear reactor could have disasterous consequences.

  3. A major part of the problem is the interdependence that we have achieved. We all rely on MANY other people, processes, and companies for our daily existance. When even a few of these fail, a ripple effect could cause major disruptions. Y2K is not a US problem, a Russian problem. It is a world problem.

  4. Some companies will go under. The number will be far larger than the number that would normally fail during the same period. On the positive side, some companies will muddle through, and with reduced competition, be even stronger in the long run. A few will probably excel.

  5. There will be at least a world-wide recession. The optimists put the likelihood at around 80 percent (up from 70% at the end of August, 1998). The pessimists are talking depression. Highly optimistic people talk about ONLY a 20% loss in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. At least 30% seems more likely. At this writing it is down over 10% in the past month, and further (non-Y2K related) losses seem likely.

  6. There is a likelihood of a US-wide power grid failure. The optimists place it at about a 40% chance. I place the odds somewhat better here on Kaua'i. We don't have other companies to bring down our power. My personal estimate is 20-35% chance of more than a day or so.

  7. There will be local disruptions of power, water, food, as well as possible disruptions of emergency and medical services. Air travel may be partially disrupted. There is some talk that insurance companies will not insure air carriers for the first couple (or 10) days after January 1, 2000. I suspect that we'll be able to at least travel interisland after a couple of days. I'm still seriously concerned about travel to the mainland from Hawaii. Rail shipments may well be down for a while. Rail switches are computer controlled...they took out the manual back-ups some time back. Most of our food, coal, clothing, and similar material travels by rail.

  8. Many government agencies will be unprepared. Social Security saw the problem and acted...and will probably be reasonably good. Banks are being forced to resolve the problem...so, with minor glitches, should be mostly ok.

  9. Other government agencies, such as Department of State, are behind the curve. They are on schedule to have it fixed...in 2005! EPA reportedly won't be ready until 2006. Agency for International Development (AID) should be on track in 2019 or so. These agencies may redouble their effort and be nearly ready on time. But there will undoubtedly be serious problems.

  10. The good news is that the United States will probably be the best prepared. The UK, Australia, Canada, and possibly some of the European nations will not be far behind. Asia, Africa, and the mid-east will be in dire straits. One long-term concern is with mid-east oil production and distribution. Much of this is computer controlled. A problem with oil production might not be felt at the pumps for one or two months.

  11. Not everything will be affected by the Y2K problem. Hammers, hand saws, small sailboats, and anything else not connected to a power cord. In short, it is likely to be a mess.

  12. Some individuals have suggested that we will all simply revert to manual methods. The problem is that we would have to hire, pay, and train the work force necessary to do it. There aren't enough available people to expand the work force even 10-20%. Those who would be training will be stretched to the limit doing what is necessary. It wouldn't work in the short term, and in the longer term, many companies will already be out of business.

  13. Some govrnment officials are trying to put a happy face on the whole Y2K mess. They are saying that the government's "mission critical systems" will be Y2K compliant by the end of March 1999...but they won't ready. Government officials are trying to avoid panic (good), but are discouraging rational preparations (bad). Of course, they could declare any systems that aren't ready as "non-mission critical"...no matter how bad the disaster. A lot of government agencies and companies are beginning to do contingency planning for potential problems. We should be doing contingency planning for ourselves and our loved ones...

  14. Finally, some individuals are saying that this whole thing is a hoax. If it is a hoax, why is the US Department of Defense spending 3 BILLION of your hard-earned tax dollars on it? (They really need a LOT more!) Why is Citibank spending a reported half billion dollars? Why is the FDIC telling banks that they must be prepared, or the FDIC will forcibly merge them with other (prepared) banks? Why are so many programmers and systems analysts looking for land in rural areas?

Suggested Actions

  1. First, go to the Lord. If you aren't a Born-again Christian, you have a lot more to worry about than Y2K! If not, ask Jesus into your heart. Ask Him what you should do. Do it.

  2. You should have hurricane storage. On Kaua'i, we have one and a half hurricane seasons before the year 2,000. (In other areas, it would be tornado, earthquake, or flood storage. No matter what you call it.) See to your food, water, fuel, battery, and similar storage. Inventory what you regularly use, and what you have on hand. Think about what you would do if food, water, fuel, etc. were not available for a month or two...or even more. Be sure to remember toilet paper, paper towels, soap, deodorant, feminine hygene products, pet food, and similar stuff.

  3. Look to your records. Make copies of important documents. Store them in a safe place. If it makes you feel more secure, make copies of checks paid on bills just prior to Y2K. Get a copy of your credit reports. (I plan to check the before and after credit reports and go with whichever is best!)

  4. Banks. I'm not planning to bail out of the banking system, BUT I may prepay some bills so that I have a minimum balance at the time of the year end. My Credit Union is good at doing things by hand...they had practice in the last major hurricane. The FDIC is forcing banks to become Y2K compliant, or be bought out by compliant banks. So, I forsee few bank failures, unless panic sets in. You might want a small cash stash to cover periods when automated tellers (or even banks) are unavailable.

  5. Medicine. There may be problems with prescriptions. Pharmacies use computers to (among other things) check for valid dates... Pharmaceutical companies use computers for process control. There may be a SLIGHT disruption of supply. Since I use a medication daily to help keep me alive, I should stock up!

  6. Employment. I may be working on implementing my employer's Y2K plan...if not, I may do some consulting. We cannot afford to let programming talent go to waste. If my employer was not doing anything about Y2K, I'd definitely be looking elsewhere. Better to change now than be looking for gainful employment in January, 2000, with a recession (or depression?) in full force.

  7. Get to know your neighbors. Sound them out about the possibility of joint preparations. Find out who will need extra help. That single mom who is barely scraping by may not be able to do much preparation. Good neighbors can watch each other's backs in worst case scenarios. You may also be able to build on each other's strengths, share limited supplies, entertainment, etc. It takes no more generator power to run a VCR and TV for 12 people than it does if only 2 are watching. One refrigerator can keep milk cold for a neighborhood.

  8. Consider alternate transportation in the event of an energy crunch. Do you have a functional bicycle? You can do 10-12 miles per hour on a bike. That's faster than some of us have commuted! Can you carpool to work (assuming you still have a job)? Could a sailboat work instead of a powerboat?

  9. Training/Practice. Consider what training might be helpful. There are probably a number of class available in your area. Be sure to check out adult school and community colleges. Some of the information is available on the web. Some specific suggestions are:
    1. Red Cross Advanced First Aid. Also check the Red Cross for this class. As a former National Park Ranger, ambulance driver, and ski patrolman, I recommend knowing as much first aid as you can get.
    2. CPR. You never know when you will need this vital skill. I have needed it.
    3. Emergency Medical Technician. This is much more technical than advanced first aid, but might be worth it in an emergency.
    4. Soapmaking.
    5. Making Jerky. Not difficult. You might want to make a batch up just before Y2K hits.
    6. Making fishing flies or other lures.
    7. Horticulture, gardening, agronomy, forest management (especially silvaculture), botany, livestock management, aquaculture, and similar "grow your own" classes.
    8. Blacksmithing (better yet, horse shoeing). Things break, and will need to be repaired.
    9. Auto mechanics/diesel mechanics. Ditto.
    10. Brewing/winemaking, if you are so inclined.
    11. Self-defense (Judo, Ju-Jitsu, Karate, etc.).
    12. Basketmaking, weaving, sailing, paper making, sewing, bicycle repair, archery, and similar potentially useful classes.
    13. Bridge. A great game to play by candle light.

  10. You might want to build a library of Y2K specific topics, skills, and general information. Some of the books that I have found interesting are:
    1. Y2K Books:
      • TIME BOMB 2000 by Ed & Jennifer Yourdon. I've had a lot of respect for Ed Yourdon as a computer professional for a lot of years.

      • The MILLENIUM BUG: How to Survive the Coming Chaos by Michael S. Hyatt.

    2. General Books:
      • The Care and Feeding of Sailing Crew by Lin Pardey. This delightful book includes a number of tips on storing food for long voyages, water purification and storage, and recipes for cooking stored food. I even found a couple of good new recipes for storable things that we commonly store and use in Hawaii (Notably SPAM® and corned beef).

      • The Book of Bamboo by David Farrelly. While parts of this book dip almost into far east mysticism, it does list some good uses for bamboo, including illustrations of a evaporative cooler (not as cold as an ice chest...but doesn't require ice!), windmill, bridges, baskets, shower, etc. Bamboo is probably the world's most versitile plant.

      • The Chilton's Manual for your car. Or any other good automotive manual.

      • Marine Diesel Engines by Nigel Calder. A must if you are cruising or otherwise must do the work yourself.

      • The Holy Bible. Something to read by lamplight on those long nights.

  11. Other. If you are considering solar power, water heating, etc., consider it in light of the Y2K problem...and that it may mean hot showers instead of cold ones for a month or two...in addition to other reasons. In other words, simply include Y2K preparation as a factor in the purchases that you make in the coming year. Consider building a solar oven. They are cheap, easy to construct, and relatively effective, especially in areas that get a lot of sunlight. Send me a note for the URL of a site with the plans.

  12. START NOW! There aren't yet many problems with availability and inflated costs. That will not hold in the future. And the early Y2K problems could start within six months. (In a recent survey, 40% of senior DP managers have said that Y2K problems have already occured at their companies.) Plan what you want, and start an orderly purchase program. Some think that we might have some rationing at some time in the future. Plan ahead, don't try to act at the last minute. Try to purchase those things that may be rationed first (especially if they store well).

  13. Investments. My retirement plan is the least of my worries, but I've tried to make it as conservative as I can. The market is down 1,000 points in the last month (as of August 14 1998), and that doesn't count Y2K problems!

I'm a moderate on the Y2k issue. Others are suggesting at least a year's supply, stockpiling non-hybred seeds, buying gold, moving to the wilderness, laying in guns and ammunition, goods intended for barter, etc. I haven't addressed the question of self-protection. There is a definite high probability of some civil disorder and even martial law. I think that this will be primarily in urban locations, with a lot of unprepared people. Some members of the criminal element will probably try to take advantage of a confused situation. If you opt for firearms, be sure that you know how to use them, and that you store them safely. One key consideration is ensuring that your firearms are not used against you! Check out the home page of the National Rifle Association. Remember that the NRA is trying to keep your firearms from being confiscated. If you need personal advice on which weapon is best for you, send me an e-mail. Much depends on your situation, size, strength, etc. Personally, I think that being relatively invisable is a much better protection than being in a fortress.

I think that we'll get through this, with some pain. There may be some interesting changes. If the IRS can't get its act together in time, I could forsee a national sales tax, a value added tax, or flat income tax as almost a certainty. There will have to be some sort of limit to Y2K lawsuits...there is currently movement in this direction.

In summary, this is for real, it's world wide, and the date seems to be definite. But we should make most of these preparations anyway! If the best possible outcome ocurs, you will have additional useful skills and disaster preparedness storage in place for the next disaster in your area.

Selected Y2K Links

There are currently over 17,000 Y2K sites on the web. These are some that I've found interesting:

Feel free to pass this on, if you wish.

Bill


return to my home page.

Like the site, or have comments? Send me e-mail!